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The Vaccine is Giving the Bond Market a Reaction

We are now more than a year past when the pandemic started and everyone wants a clear picture of the future. When will things return to normal? When everyone’s focused on the future, it’s easy to ignore or miss what is happening right in front of us. Recent COVID-19 data is showing some incredible progress:

COVID-19 hospitalizations are down approximately 60% from their peak in early January

  • COVID-19 new cases have fallen approximately 75% from their peak in early January

  • COVID-19 daily deaths are down approximately 45% from their peak in early January

Over 13% of Americans have now received at least one dose of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine. Older Americans are being vaccinated at much higher rates which is very important because the virus has been particularly fatal for older men and women. Americans age 75 and older represent only 6% of the population but 60% of all COVID-19 deaths and over 80% of all COVID-19 deaths have come from Americans over the age of 64. This is why we were very excited to read that 64% of Americans age 75 and older and nearly half of those 64 have already been given at least 1 dose of the vaccine. As for the vaccines, the limiting factor remains supply, but we’ll soon see a significant increase as just this past weekend the FDA approved the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for emergency use. J&J says it will be able to produce 20 million doses by the end of March and 100 million by the end of June. And as the J&J vaccine only requires a single dose, this will mean an additional 100 million people that can be vaccinated within the next 4 months (J&J Phase 3 trials showed 85% effectiveness against severe disease and zero cases of hospitalization or death 28 days post-vaccination). This should continue to push down hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks and months. We hope that the road back to normal is finally within sight. Grandparents can safely hug their grandkids again; weddings, birthdays and graduations can be celebrated; humans can start being hu